Mar 31, 2014

Current Pattern and Prior Cycle Engagements

Give or take a day, this is where the current pattern engaged within each "cycle" aka the long-term ISO component, ~57 days.

20131008


20131203


20140130


20140329


Please attempt a stare & compare method analysis by moving the maps back and forth (click image). Currently my favorite way to get GFS guidance is via Tropical Tidbits. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Mar 30, 2014

A Short Discussion - Second Half of April Temperature Trend

The below tweet prompted a response from @Blizzardof96 on the AccuWx Forums. Always an insightful read from him.




His response mused me into responding. My response is below.

----

In regard with the long-term ISO, late April should be watched for another cold intrusion. However, with the jet transitioning northward, I am not against departures coming in less dramatic. Take a similar jet position, in a similar transition (to winter, instead of summer), the first half of November the midwest was riddled with short lived ridges.











It is the short-term ISO that will pick up on this soon, shall the Rossby recur in such a way.

----

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!